US midterms Election Day: poll closing times, the Senate battleground and when to expect results

The RealClearPolling average of national polls has Democrats ahead of Republicans by 51.4% to 43.2%, a lead of 8.2 points. In a survey of registered voters, 44% expected Democrats to win the House and 31% expected Republicans to, while on the Senate the split was 39% to 36%. A Sabato's Crystal Ball analyst said the House is almost certain to flip, but that the Senate is much more up in the air. The Trump administration's tariff policy and the Iran war have been blamed for a cost-of-living crisis that is hurting Republicans, and some analysts note that control of key Senate committees would let Democrats open sweeping investigations of the administration.

The races to watch

Ratings differ by forecaster. According to the Cook Political Report, Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and Texas are toss-ups for the Senate, and Michigan is also rated a toss-up. North Carolina, where Donald Trump won narrowly, was seen as a toss-up at the start of the cycle and is now rated a likely Democratic flip, which makes it the Democrats' best chance of taking a Republican-held seat. Georgia and South Carolina are also closely watched, and Alaska has contested Senate and governor races, with a dispute over two candidates named Dan Sullivan. In Texas, Republican Ken Paxton faces Democrat James Talarico, and both are focusing on Harris County, which recorded a record early vote of 1,081,010. In Kansas an Emerson poll had Democrat Adam Hamilton at 49% and Republican Senator Roger Marshall at 45%, in Maine Republican Senator Susan Collins faces Democrat Troy Jackson, and Iowa's Republican candidate is Ashley Hinson, whom Trump backs.

Among governors, the races in Kansas, Nevada and Georgia are rated pure toss-ups, and Ohio's governor race features Democrat Amy Acton. Voters in Washington state will decide on a millionaires' tax, a referendum on repealing a 9.9% tax on income over $1 million a year.

The early vote

A University of Florida analysis put the early vote on Sunday at about 53.14 million out of roughly 210 million registered voters, made up of 29 million in-person and 23 million mail ballots, against 46 million at the same point in 2022. More than 11 million registered Democrats had voted early, against about 8 million registered Republicans. Texas had more than 7 million early ballots, over 1.5 million more than in 2022, and South Carolina was up 83%, Maine 44%, Kansas 34% and Michigan 32%. Analysts caution that these figures show party registration and not how people voted, and they cannot show whether the Democratic lead among early voters will survive a heavy Election Day turnout.

Polls start closing at 6 pm Eastern time in parts of Kentucky and Indiana, and at 7 pm in Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia. Guides list Montana, Nevada and Utah at 10 pm and California and Washington at 11 pm, with the last closings at 1 am. Nationwide results are likely to arrive very late, and some races may not be called on election night, so control of Congress could still be unresolved on Wednesday. Texas can report quickly because most Texans vote before Election Day, while Alaska's reporting is different, and California and Washington count mail ballots over several days, so those results can be delayed.

The final days have been shaped by court fights. A federal judge in San Francisco barred the Justice Department from threatening or coercing election officials into halting the processing of ballots, after it warned California officials about up to 20,000 ballots it called suspect. Reports say the Supreme Court has declined a bid to block more than 20,000 ballots in California, while the department has asked the court to intervene on ballot demands there. In September the Supreme Court rejected Trump's bid to impose mail-in voting restrictions before the midterms. Mail ballots account for about a third of all votes in the United States, and return deadlines differ by state.