Cyclone Arnab: very severe storm to hit Andhra coast between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam on 28 October

The name Arnab was widely used in September for another system, which never grew beyond a deep depression, so the name has not formally been used for a cyclone before. The forecast can still shift in the next two days, and the exact landfall point and the hour will become clearer as the storm takes shape.

In the IMD's scale, a severe cyclonic storm has winds of 89 to 117 kmph and a very severe cyclonic storm has winds of 118 to 165 kmph, so the forecast winds at landfall put Arnab at the bottom of the very severe category. Yanam, which is mentioned in the warnings, is an enclave of the Union Territory of Puducherry on the Andhra coast, and it falls under the same alerts as the neighbouring districts of East Godavari and Kakinada.

Alerts in Andhra Pradesh

On Tuesday, 27 October, a red alert is in force for Kakinada, Konaseema, East Godavari, West Godavari and Eluru districts and for Yanam in Puducherry, with extremely heavy rainfall that can disrupt normal life. An orange alert covers Srikakulam, Parvathipuram Manyam, Vizianagaram, Visakhapatnam, Alluri Sitharama Raju, Anakapalli, NTR, Krishna, Guntur and Bapatla, and a yellow alert covers Palnadu, Prakasam and Nellore.

On Wednesday, the red alert widens to Visakhapatnam, Alluri Sitharama Raju, Anakapalle, Kakinada, Konaseema, East Godavari, West Godavari, Eluru, NTR, Krishna and Guntur, along with Yanam. Srikakulam, Parvathipuram Manyam, Vizianagaram and Bapatla are under an orange alert, and Palnadu, Prakasam and Nellore under a yellow one. Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu has put officials on high alert, and the state's power utilities have been told to keep staff and material ready, since high winds bring down poles and lines.

Odisha and the neighbouring states

In Odisha, the IMD has issued a red alert for Puri, Gajapati, Ganjam, Rayagada, Koraput and Malkangiri, with the greatest effect expected on the coast between Kakinada and Gopalpur. Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi has said that the state is completely ready and that the aim is zero casualties. Fishermen are strictly forbidden from going to sea, rough sea conditions are expected, and holidays of government staff have been cancelled. Schools and colleges in five southern districts will be shut on 28 and 29 October.

West Bengal will not be directly affected, according to the Kolkata Regional Meteorological Centre, but the influence of the system will bring scattered rain and thunderstorms from 27 to 30 October. Heavy rain is likely in South 24 Parganas, East Midnapore, West Midnapore and Jhargram on Wednesday and Thursday, and in Darjeeling, Kalimpong, Jalpaiguri and Alipurduar from Thursday. Winds of 35 to 55 kmph are expected on the Bengal coast from Tuesday, and fishermen have been told to return to shore.

Telangana, which is in the grip of a drought, is not likely to gain much. Reports in the state say that the cyclone is unlikely to ease the water crisis, because the heaviest rain will fall along the coast and the system will weaken as it moves inland. Some rain is still forecast for parts of the state, but not enough to refill reservoirs that are far below normal.

For people in the alert areas, the advice is the usual one. Follow the notices from the district collector and the state disaster management authority, move to a shelter if asked to, stay away from beaches and the sea, keep mobile phones charged, and store drinking water, dry food and essential medicines. Avoid travelling on coastal roads during the period of the red alerts, and do not shelter under trees or hoardings. Train and flight schedules on the east coast may change at short notice, and passengers should check with the railways and airlines before they set out.