PM Modi to attend the ASEAN-India and East Asia summits in Manila from 16 to 18 November

Modi will attend a dinner hosted by the Philippine President, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., for visiting leaders. The government is trying to arrange a meeting with the Indian community in the Philippines after requests from the diaspora, which Tandon described as a possibility and not a firm programme. Other leaders expected at the meetings include China's Premier Li Qiang, the United States President Donald Trump and the United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, though Trump and Guterres are described as expected and not confirmed. The Quad leaders' summit is also expected to take place in the Philippines next week, and Modi and Trump are expected to be at it.

What India says about Myanmar and Act East

The briefing's most specific policy statement was on Myanmar. Tandon said India opposes isolating the country and supports continued dialogue, and that engagement is the only option. If the international community steps back, he said, someone else will fill the vacuum, and "there is no alternative to engagement". He said India strongly supports ASEAN's initiatives to engage the government in Myanmar on the conflict and the humanitarian crisis, and called for patience and consistency given Myanmar's complex history and society. Myanmar will be represented at the summits by a senior foreign ministry official and not by a leader.

The position follows the ASEAN Five-Point Consensus agreed in Jakarta on 24 April 2021, which called for an end to violence, dialogue among all parties, a special envoy, humanitarian aid through ASEAN and an envoy's visit to Myanmar. India's concern is practical: the conflict spills over its border, and refugees have entered Mizoram. Modi raised these concerns when he met Myanmar's President Min Aung Hlaing in New Delhi in June, and Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri has said a mechanism exists for repatriating refugees.

Tandon described ASEAN engagement as a key building block of India's Act East Policy and said India has very active bilateral relations with all 11 ASEAN members, a count that includes Timor-Leste, which joined the association. Trade is the other pillar: reports put India-ASEAN trade at about $122 billion, a figure that was not in the ministry's briefing text itself.

India's partnership with ASEAN is more than three decades old. It became a sectoral dialogue partner in 1992, a full dialogue partner in 1996, joined the annual summit process in 2002 and was upgraded to a strategic partnership in 2012. The Act East Policy, announced in 2014, gave the relationship a sharper focus on trade, connectivity and security. India also takes part in the East Asia Summit, which it joined in 2005, and the Quad leaders' summit and the G20 summit in the United States next month, which Modi is expected to attend, will bring more meetings with several of the same leaders.

What to watch

Three things are worth following. The first is the outcome document of the ASEAN-India Summit and whether it announces any new commitments on trade, connectivity or digital cooperation; the briefing did not list any. The second is the sidelines: a Modi meeting with Trump, if it takes place, would come days after Indian officials said Washington had assured India of a comparative tariff advantage in their trade talks. The third is the Myanmar session, where leaders will review how the Five-Point Consensus is working and where India's argument for engagement may meet resistance from members who favour more pressure.

The Philippines chair has used the year to stress cooperation and resilience, and the East Asia Summit gives India a place to speak on regional security alongside China and the United States. The ministry will publish a statement after each engagement, and those statements, and not the briefing, will show what was agreed.