Bay of Bengal low due on 13 November may become a depression by the 15th: what IMD says

A depression is the first stage in the department's scale, with sustained winds of up to about 50 kmph. Whether it grows into a cyclonic storm is not yet known. The department says it is too early to conclude that it will, and that the result depends on changing atmospheric and ocean conditions. A forecaster at the private firm Skymet, Mahesh Palawat, said favourable conditions could support intensification and that, if it did become a cyclonic storm, it would be named Akwan, a name contributed by Iran. International weather models have shown a possible cyclone, but the department has confirmed neither formation nor landfall.

The track is also open. Early model projections point towards the coasts of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, but some models suggest the system could change direction over the sea. The department's own statement is only that it will move north-westwards once it has formed. The state was hit earlier this month by Cyclone Murasu, which crossed the Andhra coast near Ongole, so coastal residents are watching the new system closely.

Who gets rain, and what are the wind warnings?

The department's rainfall outlook varies by region.

Winds are expected to strengthen over the sea. In the Andaman Sea on 14 and 15 November the outlook is for winds of 40 to 50 kmph with gusts up to 60 kmph, and the southeast Bay of Bengal has similar conditions from 14 to 16 November. In the southwest Bay on 15 to 17 November, winds of 45 to 55 kmph with gusts to 65 kmph are expected, with strong winds in the central Bay on 16 and 17 November. Squally weather is likely over the Andaman Sea. Fishermen and those at sea, especially near the Andaman region, have been told to follow official marine warnings and to avoid the Andaman Sea while it is rough.

The department grades these systems by wind speed. A depression has sustained winds of about 31 to 49 kmph, a deep depression 50 to 61 kmph, and a cyclonic storm 62 to 88 kmph, and only a system that reaches the last grade is given a name from the list that member countries contribute in turn. That is why a depression forecast for 15 November is not yet a cyclone warning, and why the department has not issued one. The advice for now is routine: follow the district bulletins and the marine warnings, and treat track maps from individual weather models as possibilities and not forecasts.

What this means for the rest of the country

For people on the east coast, the next three days are about watching the bulletins rather than acting. The department updates its warnings daily, and district-wise warnings by colour appear on its website.

Elsewhere, the weather is dry. An anticyclonic circulation is keeping northern and central India stable and dry, and the winter chill has not set in, with several areas still reporting above-normal daytime temperatures. A western disturbance and a cyclonic circulation over Kashmir are bringing scattered rain and snow to higher reaches, with isolated precipitation over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Colder weather in the plains depends on widespread snowfall in the Himalayas, which has not yet happened, so temperatures may keep fluctuating. The questions to watch over the weekend are whether the low forms on schedule, whether the department upgrades it, and which way the models settle on its track.