Abu Dhabi talks end with a big prisoner swap agreed; Kushner and Witkoff head to Putin

Exchanges have happened before without a wider settlement. In Istanbul in May 2025 the two sides agreed a swap of 1,000 for 1,000, and a smaller exchange of 157 prisoners from each side was agreed after the February round in Abu Dhabi. This one would be larger if it reaches the upper figure.

The talks were largely about humanitarian questions: prisoner exchanges, the return of Ukrainian civilians held in captivity and the return of children taken from Ukraine. Zelensky, who was in Copenhagen and followed by video link, called the second day constructive and quite substantive and said security guarantees were also discussed.

Reactions from the table

Kushner said the talks had moved forward on the parties' views about guaranteeing security. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the meeting very productive but said a breakthrough that stops the war will take time. Davyd Arakhamia, a member of Ukraine's delegation, called the talks among the most difficult, said the Russian side appeared to have strict instructions from Moscow, and credited the United States with focusing the discussion on the post-war future. We have made really significant progress, he said, and he called for another round as soon as possible, in the hope of a solution before the new year.

Medinsky said mutual understanding had been reached on some issues and that more talks would follow. He also said Russia had held no talks with European representatives and questioned their role, saying Moscow had received no concrete peace proposals from Europe, though it would consider concrete proposals if they came. European officials, along with representatives of the EU and NATO, were in Abu Dhabi to consult the Ukrainian side and the US envoys, but they did not join the three-way sessions. Umerov said Kyiv would hold further talks with European partners on Wednesday. Washington has indicated that European countries should eventually join the negotiations, especially on future security arrangements.

What comes next, and what has not moved

Putin's aide Yuri Ushakov said the envoys would meet Putin in Moscow on the morning of Thursday, 12 November, and the envoys will then fly to Dublin to meet Zelensky, where European leaders are gathering during Ireland's presidency of the EU. Kushner said he wanted to bring European countries into the negotiations. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said a call between Putin and President Donald Trump was not planned for the time being.

The core gaps remain. Russia continues to demand that Ukraine withdraw from the eastern Donbas region, which Kyiv still controls. Zelensky says decisions about territory must be made by leaders, that the first step must be to end the war and give Ukraine security guarantees, and that a ceasefire should come first. Moscow rejects an immediate ceasefire.

The fighting went on around the talks. Russia struck Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv overnight, wounding seven civilians. Russia's defence ministry said it shot down 627 Ukrainian drones overnight, 150 of them over the St Petersburg region, and a drone attack started a fire at the Ust-Luga oil export port, injuring three workers. The last meeting between the sides, in Geneva in February, ended in stalemate, and little territory has changed hands on the front line this year.

The political backdrop is also moving. US officials say they are determined to revive Washington's peace efforts, which have so far delivered little, and the war has now lasted nearly five years. Democrats could take control of Congress in January after the midterm elections and may press for more support for Ukraine.

What to watch on Thursday is the size and date of the exchange, what Putin tells the envoys, and whether the message to Zelensky in Dublin includes anything on territory or a leaders' meeting. The prisoner exchange is the only concrete result so far, and its numbers are still open.