Centre weighs special Parliament session on delimitation and women's quota, but needs a two-thirds majority

The earlier attempt did not clear the bar. The Constitution (131st Amendment) Bill, which dealt with delimitation and was tied to women's reservation, received more votes for than against in the Lok Sabha in April, but it fell short of the two-thirds majority a constitutional amendment needs. Amit Shah had offered during that special session to redraft the bill so that every state would get 50 per cent more seats than its current strength in the Lok Sabha. The opposition defeated the agenda.

Parliament passed the women's reservation law in 2023, but it cannot be put into effect until the seats are redrawn after a delimitation exercise. The government wants to bring the timeline forward so that one-third of seats in the Lok Sabha and the state assemblies are reserved for women before the 2029 general election. Congress opposes delimitation and wants the 33 per cent quota applied to the present Lok Sabha of 543 seats.

The numbers

Government strategists say they are nearing the two-thirds majority, and the sums, as reported, show how narrow the margin is.

In the Lok Sabha, the NDA's 320 includes 20 rebel Trinamool MPs, six Shiv Sena MPs and one Akali Dal MP, and sources say the target is 380. That leaves a gap of about 36 votes even with YSRCP. In the Rajya Sabha the NDA would still be about six short. The numbers come from the same unnamed sources and could change by the time of a vote. A special majority means two-thirds of members present and voting, so absences also matter.

Who holds the key

The weight falls on the DMK, with 22 MPs, and on the NCP (SP), with eight. The government is also in touch with smaller parties. Senior NDA leaders say a new formula could ease southern states' fear of losing weight in the Lok Sabha, and the draft is reportedly being reworked to promise that no state's representation will be reduced.

The DMK's position has moved. Its leader, M.K. Stalin, has said he will not work with Congress, which he says betrayed him by joining Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam to form the government in Tamil Nadu. Both the DMK and the NCP (SP) will decide after studying the government's new draft.

The opposition's objections have not changed. Southern states fear that a population-based redistribution of seats would punish those that did better at controlling population growth. Parties also question tying women's reservation to delimitation and using census data to redraw constituencies.

The session is being discussed while the opposition steps up its protests against the Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls and against Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar, who is accused by the protesters of manipulating the rolls and who denies it. Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge was reported to be planning to raise concerns over the revision, delimitation and the women's quota with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and to have asked for an all-party meeting before Parliament considers a delimitation amendment.

The INDIA bloc has been allowed to hold a rally at Ramlila Grounds on 1 November. BJP leaders say the opposition could move a motion to remove the Chief Election Commissioner but lacks the numbers. The government separates the earlier paper-leak protests, which it says moved young people, from the present ones, which it calls political.

The BJP has momentum in other places: it won four of the six recent by-elections, including a Lok Sabha seat in Assam, and the ABVP won student elections in several universities. Seven states go to the polls in 2027. Whether that is enough to carry a constitutional amendment will be known only when the numbers are counted in the House.