/
IMD: Bay of Bengal low to become a depression within 12 hours, near Andhra coast by evening of 2 November
The IMD said on 31 October that a well-marked low-pressure area over the southeast Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea will likely become a depression within 12 hours and come close to the Andhra Pradesh coast by the evening of 2 November. Coastal residents are asked to stay alert.
R
3 min
The India Meteorological Department said on Saturday, 31 October, that a well-marked low-pressure area has formed over the southeast Bay of Bengal and the adjoining Andaman Sea. It is expected to intensify into a depression over the same region within the next 12 hours. It is then likely to intensify further and come close to the Andhra Pradesh coast, adjoining the west-central Bay of Bengal, by the evening of 2 November. Residents along the Andhra Pradesh coast and nearby areas have been advised to stay alert and follow official weather advisories.
What the bulletin says
The well-marked low developed from a low-pressure area that existed the previous day. Its cyclonic circulation extends up to 7.6 km above mean sea level, and the system is moving west-northwestward. The department said it expects the system to keep its direction and to intensify further. It is tracking the system and will issue further updates.
An earlier forecast, reported on 30 October, said that a low-pressure area over the South Andaman Sea and the adjoining Andaman and Nicobar Islands, located there at 8:30 am on that day, would concentrate into a depression over the southeast Bay of Bengal around 31 October. It would then move west-northwestwards towards the Andhra Pradesh coast over the following two days.
Depression or cyclone
A depression is a stage below a cyclonic storm, and the bulletin speaks of a depression, not a cyclone. A regional headline this morning spoke of a fresh cyclone for Andhra Pradesh within 24 hours, but the department's wording is that a depression is expected within 12 hours. The intensity and the track depend on how the atmosphere evolves, and some models suggest further intensification, according to one report.
The department's forecast points to the Andhra Pradesh coast. Independent weather trackers have suggested a possible path towards north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh, according to one report, but that is not a warning from the department.
Rain is expected in parts of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, and rainfall may revive over the east coast in the first week of November. A coastal bulletin of 30 October forecast scattered rain or thundershowers along the north Andhra coast and isolated rain along the south Andhra coast. South-easterly winds of 10 to 15 knots are expected along the north and south Andhra coasts, rising to as much as 25 knots during thundershowers. Sea conditions are expected to be slight, but they could become rough during thunderstorms.
In Odisha, the southern districts of Rayagada, Koraput, Malkangiri, Gajapati and Ganjam could get heavy rain at isolated places on 1 November, according to one report.
One report says that fishermen should avoid the central and south Bay of Bengal and remain in harbour, and that residents should check the district collector's orders. Rain alerts have also been issued for Odisha and for the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
The coastal bulletin of 30 October included no port warning and no storm-surge advisory for the Andhra coast. The reports found do not mention a fishermen's advisory or any specific warning for Tamil Nadu from the department.
The next bulletin from the department will show whether the low has become a depression and whether the forecast track still points to the Andhra coast. People in the coastal districts should follow the district administration's instructions as the system nears.
R
3 min
What did you think?
