Rabi sowing is down 17.21% as wheat area falls 12% after a weak monsoon

The picture is mixed. Several smaller crops are ahead of last year, while the big ones are behind.

Within pulses, gram is down 21.61% at 21.36 lakh hectares, while lentil is up 3.60% at 4.54 lakh. Urad is up 27.20% and moong 18.33%. Within oilseeds, sunflower is down 13.91%, groundnut is up 54.39% at 0.47 lakh hectares, and linseed is up 109.01% at 0.96 lakh. Coarse cereals, called Shri Anna in the ministry's data, stand at 8.15 lakh hectares, down 17.47%. A dash means the year-earlier area was not reported in the summary. Oilseeds and pulses together account for 74.01 lakh of the 108.66 lakh hectares sown, about 68%, while wheat accounts for about 18%, so the fall in the first two matters more to the total than the fall in wheat.

The biggest shortfall in absolute terms is in mustard, which is 13.71 lakh hectares behind, followed by wheat at 2.70 lakh and gram. Mustard is usually sown early, in October, and needs moisture at planting, which is why a dry start hurts it most.

Why sowing lagged: a monsoon 13% short and little moisture

The June to September monsoon delivered 13% less rain than normal, which left less moisture in the soil when farmers came to prepare their fields. Daytime temperatures stayed high, which discouraged sowing, and reservoir and canal water was below normal in some key wheat-growing states, according to the data summaries. Farmers in several areas have waited for better weather before planting.

The week-on-week change shows how quickly the gap is closing. As of 30 October the ministry's data showed 37.56 lakh hectares sown, 45.6% below the 69.02 lakh of a year earlier, and wheat at 0.19 lakh hectares, 94% below. By 6 November the total had nearly tripled, to 108.66 lakh, and wheat had risen about a hundredfold. The year-on-year deficit fell from 45.6% to 17.2% in a week. That does not mean the gap will keep shrinking at the same rate, but it shows that the earlier figures overstated the shortfall.

For perspective, wheat covered about 336 lakh hectares in the 2025-26 season, so the 19.77 lakh sown so far is under 6% of last season's total area.

Targets, stocks and what the minister has asked

The ministry has set a rabi foodgrain target of 177.72 million tonnes, including 121 million tonnes of wheat, 17.20 million tonnes of pulses and 22.30 million tonnes of nutri and coarse cereals. Mr Chouhan has directed officials to begin sowing immediately after the kharif harvest and to make use of the moisture left in the fields. He has urged more cultivation of low-water, low-input crops such as chickpea, mustard, lentil and millets. The ministry says stocks of urea, DAP, MOP, NPK fertiliser and certified seed are adequate, and officials have been asked to make heat-tolerant seed available. Reports say the Centre has readied a contingency plan, though its details were not published.

The ministry is also running the Khet Bachao Abhiyan for Rabi 2026, a campaign in which scientists work directly with farmers in the field, from 22 October to 30 November.

What happens next depends on the weather and on how fast planting catches up in the coming weeks. The ministry publishes progress each week, and the next report will show whether wheat closes the gap with last year or whether the late start leaves it behind at the end of the sowing window. The figures to watch are the wheat area, which sets the size of the main crop, and the oilseed and pulse areas, which matter for edible oil and dal prices.