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Cyclone Murasu: IMD forecasts landfall on south Andhra coast between Nellore and Narsapur on 3 November
IMD's 2:50 am bulletin on 1 November says the depression will become a cyclonic storm, then a severe one, and cross the south Andhra coast between Nellore and Narsapur on the morning of 3 November with winds of 100 to 110 km/h. Fishermen are warned off; it will be named Murasu if it strengthens.
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The India Meteorological Department says that the depression over the Bay of Bengal will intensify into a cyclonic storm and cross the south Andhra Pradesh coast, between Nellore and Narsapur, on the morning of Tuesday, 3 November, with winds of 100 to 110 km/h gusting to 120 km/h. The forecast is from the department's bulletin issued at 2:50 am on 1 November. If the system reaches cyclonic storm strength it will be named Murasu, a name that India proposed and that means drum in Tamil. The department has not yet named the system.
Where the system is
At 11:30 pm on 31 October the depression was centred about 830 km east-southeast of Chennai and 880 km south-southeast of Visakhapatnam. It was moving west-northwest at about 22 km/h. The disturbance was being tracked as Invest 91B, and sea-surface temperatures in its area were roughly 29 to 30 degrees Celsius, with favourable upper-level outflow and manageable wind shear, according to one report.
The forecast
| When | Expected stage |
|---|---|
| By noon on 1 November | Deep depression |
| By midnight on 1 November | Cyclonic storm |
| 2 November | Severe cyclonic storm over the west-central Bay of Bengal |
| Morning of 3 November | Landfall on the south Andhra coast between Nellore and Narsapur |
The department said earlier, in a bulletin of 31 October, that the low-pressure area would become a depression and come close to the Andhra coast by the evening of 2 November, so the timing has moved a little as the system has strengthened. Reports differ on the intensity: one expects winds of 80 to 90 km/h gusting to 100 km/h at landfall, and the later bulletin says 100 to 110 km/h, gusting to 120.
Squally winds of 40 to 50 km/h are expected over the Andhra Pradesh coast from Sunday evening, gales of 65 to 75 km/h by Monday night, and the strongest winds, 80 to 90 km/h gusting to 100 km/h, from Tuesday forenoon. Extremely heavy rain is forecast at isolated places in coastal Andhra on Monday, and heavy rain on Monday and Tuesday in Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu, south Odisha and Telangana. One report says that rain is likely in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal until 5 November and in Kerala and Mahe until 4 November.
Fishermen are warned not to go to sea off the Andhra Pradesh coast from Monday morning, 2 November, to Wednesday afternoon, 4 November, and off north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry from the morning of 1 November to the morning of 4 November. The department told people living in thatched and kutcha houses on the coast to move to safer places. Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu ordered advance precautions at a review on 31 October, and the reports do not list the measures.
Helplines are 112, the national emergency number, 1070, the Andhra Pradesh disaster helpline, and 1800 425 0101, the state's toll-free disaster management line.
The system follows Cyclone Arnab, which crossed the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts southwest of Yanam on 28 October with maximum sustained winds of about 125 to 135 km/h and gusts of up to 150 km/h. It weakened inland, and its remnant low was well inland by 30 October. Soils may be saturated already, one report notes, and Arnab caused significant damage in Andhra Pradesh and affected thousands of people.
The department's next bulletin was due at 8:30 am on 1 November. The things to watch are whether the depression is confirmed as a deep depression by noon, when the department declares cyclonic storm intensity and gives the name, and whether the crossing zone is narrowed. The reports found do not mention deployment of the National Disaster Response Force or school closures.
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