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Bay of Bengal cyclone watch: depression today, storm on 26 October, landfall near Andhra and Odisha on 28th
A low-pressure area that formed over the Bay of Bengal on Friday is expected to become a depression on Saturday, a deep depression on Sunday and a cyclonic storm on Monday morning, says the IMD. It may reach the north Andhra and south Odisha coast early on 28 October, with extremely heavy rain.
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A low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal is expected to grow into a cyclonic storm by Monday morning, 26 October, and to approach the coast of north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha around the early hours of 28 October. The India Meteorological Department has not yet predicted where exactly or at what strength it will cross the coast, and it has not named the system. Searches about the storm were among the biggest in India on Friday night and Saturday morning, especially in Tamil.
The low formed over the east-central and adjoining south-east Bay of Bengal at 5:30 am on Friday, 23 October. IMD Director General Mrutyunyay Mohapatra said it is likely to concentrate into a depression on 24 October, become a deep depression on 25 October and turn into a cyclonic storm over the west-central Bay on the morning of 26 October. It will then move west-north-west and reach near north Andhra Pradesh and the adjoining south Odisha coast around the early morning of 28 October. The department said it would give the intensity, time and place of landfall once the system becomes a depression. In the department's scale a depression has winds of 31 to 49 km an hour, a deep depression 50 to 61 and a cyclonic storm 62 to 88, so the forecast stages track the wind figures below. A cyclonic storm is the first stage that earns a name, and none has been announced.
Winds and sea
The winds are forecast to build day by day.
| Date | Wind speed | Gusts |
|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct | 35 to 45 km/h | 55 km/h |
| 24 Oct | 45 to 55 km/h | 65 km/h |
| 25 Oct | 55 to 65 km/h | 75 km/h |
| 26 Oct (morning) | 70 to 80 km/h | 90 km/h |
The sea is rough at present and is expected to turn very rough on Saturday, and to stay high to very high from 26 to 28 October. Fishermen have been told not to go into the east-central and south-east Bay of Bengal until 25 October, and not into the west-central and adjoining north-west Bay from 26 to 29 October. The Director General asked authorities and sectors such as fishing, shipping, ports and offshore industries to take preparatory action.
International forecasting models also point to a cyclone. The European model brings the system near the Odisha and Andhra coast on 27 October and has landfall on 28 October, and the American GFS, the German ICON and the Australian ACCESS models also show the possibility of a cyclone. Their landfall points differ between the Andhra and Odisha coasts, and the formation, strength and track remain uncertain, which is why the official forecast keeps to a general stretch of coast.
Rain to expect
The rain is likely to start along coastal Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh on 26 October. On 27 October, heavy to very heavy rain is likely at a few places in coastal Odisha and isolated heavy rain in coastal West Bengal, and heavy to very heavy rain at a few places and extremely heavy rain at isolated places over north Andhra Pradesh. Rain peaks on 28 October, with extremely heavy falls, which means more than 20 cm in 24 hours, over north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, and heavy to very heavy rain at isolated places over West Bengal. On 28 and 29 October isolated heavy rain is possible over Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Bihar.
For Odisha, the IMD's Bhubaneswar centre forecasts isolated extremely heavy rain in Ganjam, Gajapati and Puri, and heavy to very heavy rain at isolated places in Mayurbhanj, Keonjhar, Balasore, Bhadrak, Jajpur, Kendrapara, Cuttack, Khordha, Jagatsinghpur, Nayagarh, Kandhamal, Kalahandi and Nabarangpur.
Preparations and the harvest
Odisha's Revenue and Disaster Management Minister, Suresh Pujari, and Chief Secretary Anu Garg held a high-level meeting on Friday in Bhubaneswar to prepare for a possible cyclonic storm on 26 October. The timing overlaps the kharif paddy harvest in Odisha and Andhra Pradesh, and weeks of heavy rain in the monsoon's withdrawal left standing water in Balasore, Bhadrak, Jajpur, Mayurbhanj, Ganjam, Gajapati, Koraput and Malkangiri, where soils are reported to be saturated. Farmers are advised to keep fields drained, protect harvested grain, fodder and fertiliser from rain and wind, avoid spraying before thunderstorms and move livestock to shelter.
Tamil Nadu has a separate system: orange alerts cover 17 districts and yellow alerts nine more, linked to the northeast monsoon. The cyclone, if it forms, would affect the east coast further north. The official track will become clearer once the system reaches the depression stage, and residents of coastal Andhra Pradesh and Odisha should follow IMD bulletins and state disaster management instructions.
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