Prahaar box office day 9: Rajkummar Rao's Ujjwal Nikam film earns Rs 1.15 crore on its second Saturday

The weekly pattern is a common one for a film of this kind. Collections fall on the working days of the second week, rise on the second weekend because of the holiday, and then taper. A Saturday collection of Rs 1.15 crore is a good sign only in relation to Friday. In relation to the first weekend, it shows that the audience has thinned out.

Reports on the weekend's trends say that the film dropped by about 20 per cent on one day and that Nayyi Navelli, a supernatural family comedy, stayed ahead of it. One listing says Nayyi Navelli had collected Rs 11.65 crore net in its first three days, and that it was ahead of Prahaar by Rs 2.50 crore at the box office, though the film's reviews were mixed. That comparison is a secondary detail from a headline, and the two films were released in different weeks, so the days do not line up exactly.

One report in the trends claimed a worldwide figure of Rs 1,200 crore for the film, which does not match any other number and is probably an error. The figures in this article come from the day-wise tracker and are the most recent that could be found.

The film

Nikam is known beyond the Kasab trial. He has also prosecuted in the murder case of the music producer Gulshan Kumar and in the Kopardi case, and his courtroom work has made him a public figure in Maharashtra. A film about a prosecutor has to hold attention through argument and procedure and not through chases, which is a hard thing to do for a mass audience.

The film is a biopic of Ujjwal Nikam, the prosecutor who has been involved in some of the best-known criminal trials in India. Nikam was the Special Public Prosecutor in the trial of Ajmal Kasab for the 26/11 attacks on Mumbai, and has worked on other major cases. Rajkummar Rao plays the title role in what is described as a courtroom drama. Films about real prosecutors and judges have a loyal audience, but they rely on word of mouth, since they do not have the pull of a big action film.

Is it a hit?

It also helps to know what the numbers mean. Trackers such as Sacnilk report net collections, which are the ticket sales after taxes, while producers often announce gross figures. Theatres and distributors share the net collection, and in the first weeks the distributor's share is usually about half, falling in later weeks, so a producer's income from the theatrical run is much lower than the headline figure.

Whether a film is judged a hit depends on its cost, and the budget has not been confirmed in the reports used here. A film that has collected a little under Rs 19 crore in India after nine days would need a good third week to reach the level of a profit for a mid-budget production. Satellite and streaming rights, which are often sold before release, matter as much as the theatre earnings, and they are not included in the daily numbers.

The next signals are the weekday collections of the third week and the number of shows that the cinemas keep for the film. If it holds at about Rs 50 to 60 lakh a day on weekdays, it can reach the low Rs 20 crores in India. If it falls below that, the run will be over quickly, and the film will have to count on its later life on streaming.