Jio Platforms reports first results since listing today: ARPU seen near Rs 219, profit Rs 7,610 crore

The ARPU estimate is the average of four brokerages and implies growth of nearly 2 per cent on the first quarter. The subscriber estimate, from Nomura, assumes about eight million net additions. In the first quarter, the company had 285 million users on 5G. Net profit in the first quarter was up 9.2 per cent on a year earlier but down 2.15 per cent on the previous quarter, which was attributed to higher finance costs and depreciation as 5G network assets became operational.

The most closely watched issue is tariffs. Jio has not raised its mobile tariffs, which analysts say limits the growth in ARPU, while Bharti Airtel has withdrawn its entry-level Rs 299 plan and raised postpaid tariffs. Emkay said in an October note that other companies did not follow Airtel's move and that it was still waiting for a tariff increase across the sector. Motilal Oswal said on 28 October that it believes smartphone tariff hikes are imminent, citing Airtel's postpaid hikes, the Jio listing and Vodafone Idea's near-complete debt raise, and it models a 15 per cent increase in March 2027.

In August Jio introduced a Rs 300 Jio Prime membership, which protects users from tariff hikes until 5 September 2027. Analysts see it as a source of support for revenue. Telecom makes up about 88 per cent of revenue, and analysts see digital services, such as cloud, enterprise communications, internet of things and managed services, as an important future growth driver.

The shares

Jio Platforms listed at Rs 1,358 on Wednesday, 28 October, a premium of 21.4 per cent on the issue price of Rs 1,119, and ended the first day at about Rs 1,418 on the National Stock Exchange; reports give Rs 1,417.50 and Rs 1,419. It closed at Rs 1,421.6 on Thursday, 29 October, after trading as high as about Rs 1,435 in the morning.

For readers who follow telecom results, the key terms are simple. Average revenue per user is the monthly revenue the company earns from each subscriber, and it is the best measure of whether the company is earning more from its customers without adding new ones. EBITDA is the operating profit before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, and the operating margin is EBITDA as a share of revenue. A rise in ARPU with steady subscriber growth is the combination that analysts like.

On the day Jio listed, its parent Reliance Industries fell 3.19 per cent to Rs 1,158, and Reliance reports its own results on Friday as well.

Investors will look at four things: whether ARPU and the number of subscribers match the estimates, what management says on tariffs, how fast 5G and home broadband are growing, and whether margins hold near the expected 54 to 55 per cent. The company will also be judged on its plans for cloud, artificial intelligence and enterprise services, which the market is counting on to justify a valuation of about Rs 13 lakh crore.

The first set of numbers as a listed company can move a stock sharply in either direction, even when it matches estimates, because investors react to commentary as much as to figures. This article is for information and is not investment advice.